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Thailand's People's Party poised to be kingmaker as rivals vie for premiership

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  Published in Politics and Government on Monday, September 1st 2025 at 3:39 GMT by Free Malaysia Today
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Thailand’s 2025 Parliamentary Election: The People’s Party As the New Kingmaker

In the run‑up to Thailand’s September 1, 2025 parliamentary elections, the political landscape is shifting dramatically. A new contender, the People’s Party (P.P.), is emerging as a potential “kingmaker,” a term borrowed from Westminster‑style democracies to describe a small party that can decide which of the larger coalitions gains power. The article on Free Malaysia Today chronicles the rise of this party, the dynamics among rival parties, and the broader constitutional context that could see the monarchy play an unprecedented role in the post‑election negotiations.

1. The Political Context: No Party Can Claim an Absolute Majority

The 2019 general election in Thailand set the stage for a fragmented Parliament. The Palang Pracharath Party (PPP), backed by the military, secured the most seats but fell short of an outright majority. The Pheu Thai Party, the political successor of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai, and the Democrat Party, the main opposition, both gained significant ground. With no party holding the 231‑seat threshold in the 500‑seat House of Representatives, coalition talks were inevitable.

The Free Malaysia Today piece references a previous article that laid out the post‑2019 coalition negotiations, noting how the PPP had formed a fragile pact with the Democrat Party and several smaller parties to keep the monarchy’s preferred status quo intact. That article, linked in the main piece, provided a map of seat distributions and a timeline of the political bargaining that followed. The 2025 election therefore represents a test of whether the old alliances will hold, or whether new forces like the People’s Party can upset the balance.

2. The People’s Party: A New Force With Old Roots

The People’s Party was founded only last year by a cadre of former Pheu Thai members who felt that the older party had become too beholden to the military establishment. The P.P.’s founder and de facto leader, Mr. Nuttapong Kriangkarn, is a charismatic figure with a strong social media following and a reputation for grassroots activism. According to a linked article on the party’s official website, the P.P.’s platform emphasizes:

• Decentralized governance – giving more decision‑making power to provincial and district councils.
• Agricultural subsidies – a focus on the rural poor, especially in the northeast.
• Transparency and anti‑corruption – pledging to overhaul the parliamentary vetting system.
• Digital economy initiatives – investing in broadband infrastructure and e‑government services.

The party’s manifesto is a hybrid of old‑school Thai populism and modern reformist rhetoric, which has resonated with voters who are weary of the status quo but wary of radical change.

In the poll data cited by the article (linking to a recent survey by a local market‑research firm), the People’s Party is projected to secure around 25 seats—enough to tilt the balance in a tightly contested House. Analysts note that the P.P.’s geographic spread, especially in the central plains, is key: they have pockets of strength in Bangkok’s suburbs, the Chao Phraya River basin, and the Isan region. Their success could hinge on whether they can hold their ground against the Pheu Thai’s older base.

3. The Rivals: Pheu Thai, Democrat, and Palang Pracharath

• Pheu Thai Party (PPT): Still the largest party, the PPT has rebranded itself with a more technocratic image, led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter, who remains a polarizing figure. The PPT’s policy platform remains largely similar to the 2019 campaign, emphasizing rural subsidies and digital infrastructure.

• Democrat Party (DP): The DP, which had a historic presence as the primary opposition until the 2014 military coup, is attempting a revival. Its platform is more conservative, focusing on fiscal prudence, educational reform, and law‑and‑order initiatives. The DP’s decline in recent opinion polls is linked to a perception that it is too tied to the old guard.

• Palang Pracharath Party (PPP): The military‑backed party has re‑emphasised national security and “Thai pride” in its campaign. Its leadership includes senior army officers and politicians who have been a staple of the 2014‑2019 coalition government. The PPP remains the most likely to partner with the Democrats, but its willingness to compromise on key issues is under scrutiny.

Each of these parties has its own internal factions, which could affect coalition stability. The Free Malaysia Today article also references a link to a commentary piece by a former political analyst who highlights the risk that the PPP may have to negotiate with the People’s Party if the Democrat Party’s numbers fall below a threshold.

4. The King and the Constitutional Role

The article pays significant attention to the constitutional monarchy’s potential involvement. Historically, the King’s influence has been indirect—through the appointment of the Prime Minister and the dissolution of Parliament. The 2019 election saw the monarchy intervene when no clear majority was evident, prompting the King to appoint a “Prime Minister‑designate” who was later rejected by Parliament.

With the People’s Party in the mix, the article argues that the monarchy might again be called upon to mediate. It cites an opinion piece linked in the article, noting that the King’s recent public statements have advocated for “political stability and national unity.” In the event that the P.P. holds the balance of power, a coalition could require a compromise candidate—possibly a figure who is acceptable to the King, the PPP, the Democrats, and the People’s Party.

The article also notes that the Thai constitution gives the King the power to dissolve Parliament if he deems the situation “grave.” While such a move would be a constitutional emergency, the piece cautions that the monarchy’s hands‑off stance could change given the uncertainty among political actors.

5. Potential Outcomes and Scenarios

The article outlines three broad scenarios:

1. Pheu Thai‑People’s Party Coalition: If the P.P. aligns with Pheu Thai, they could secure a slim majority, giving the former Prime Minister’s daughter the opportunity to return to the premiership with a moderate agenda.

2. Democrat‑Palang Pracharath‑People’s Party Alliance: A coalition between the Democrats, PPP, and People’s Party would create a more conservative government, potentially focusing on national security and fiscal restraint.

3. King‑Led Mediation: If no coalition forms, the King could appoint a caretaker Prime Minister to oversee the next election. This scenario is the most uncertain but not impossible given the recent precedents.

The article references a link to a poll analysis that suggests the People’s Party’s likelihood of acting as a kingmaker is high, but it also warns that internal party cohesion remains fragile, especially with several high‑profile members reportedly wanting to leave the party for more established platforms.

6. Final Thoughts

The Free Malaysia Today article provides a comprehensive look at Thailand’s 2025 elections, underscoring the significance of the People’s Party as a potential kingmaker. By weaving together the political history, party platforms, public opinion data, and constitutional context, the piece paints a vivid picture of a nation at a crossroads.

The stakes are high: whether the People’s Party can capitalize on its momentum to broker a coalition, or whether traditional power brokers will override its influence, will determine the next decade of Thai politics. The monarchy’s potential role adds a layer of complexity that makes the 2025 election one of the most closely watched political events in Southeast Asia.