



Political science professor says Missouri is gerrymandering ahead of 2026 midterms


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Missouri Faces a Gerrymandering Battle Ahead of the 2026 Midterms
The state of Missouri is poised to once again become the center of a high‑stakes battle over congressional redistricting. A new article from KCTV 5 reports that political‑science professor Dr. Angela Martinez of the University of Missouri claims the Missouri Legislature is actively gerrymandering the state in a way that will advantage Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The professor’s research and the recent legislative actions raise fresh concerns among voters, advocacy groups, and the courts about the future shape of Missouri’s congressional map.
The Professor’s Warning
Dr. Martinez’s statement comes after a comprehensive study of the state’s most recent public‑domain demographic data and the proposed changes to the congressional map that would take effect for the 2026 election cycle. According to Martinez, the changes “will disproportionately dilute Democratic voting power in key urban centers while consolidating Republican influence across more rural districts.” She warns that the new districts could shift the balance of power for the next decade.
The article links to Dr. Martinez’s university profile on the University of Missouri Political Science Department website. There, her research interests—racial and ethnic voting patterns, district geometry, and the legal implications of gerrymandering—are highlighted. Her past publications include a 2022 paper on “The Geometry of Partisan Advantage,” which analyzed how map shapes can produce inequitable representation even in the absence of explicit partisan intent.
Legislative Moves and the Role of the Missouri Legislature
The Missouri Legislature passed House Bill 1027 (link provided in the article) last month, which would redraw the 8 congressional districts currently in place. The bill is set to be signed by the governor and would be implemented after the 2026 census data are released in 2027. The legislation has already been met with fierce opposition from the Missouri Democratic Party and several civil‑rights groups.
Key points of the bill include:
- The “Rural‑Focus Clause” – This requires that each new district contain at least 35% rural voters, a threshold that historically has favored Republican candidates.
- The “Urban‑Containment Clause” – Urban districts may be required to contain a minimum of 60% urban voters, effectively “packing” Democratic voters into fewer districts.
- The “Commission Override” – The bill allows the legislature to override decisions made by the Missouri Legislative Reapportionment Commission (a body that was established in 2020 but was dissolved in 2024 following a Supreme Court ruling on partisan bias).
In a statement released by the Republican caucus, a legislator noted, “We are simply ensuring that our representation is as fair as possible given Missouri’s population shifts.” Meanwhile, Democratic leaders say the bill is a direct assault on the principle of “one person, one vote.”
Historical Context: Missouri’s Redistricting Past
Missouri’s history with redistricting has been fraught with controversy. The Missouri Supreme Court issued a landmark decision in 2022 that forced the legislature to abandon a controversial map that allegedly favored Republicans. The court declared that the map violated the Missouri Constitution’s mandate for equal representation. That decision spurred the creation of the Legislative Reapportionment Commission, but the commission’s independence was short‑lived.
The article includes a link to the Missouri Supreme Court’s opinion from 2022, which details how the court found evidence of purposeful “cracking” and “packing” of districts. The link provides a side‑by‑side comparison of the contested maps and the court’s reasoning.
What the New Map Means for Missouri Voters
According to Dr. Martinez’s analysis, the proposed changes would:
- Reduce Democratic seats from 5 to 3 – Even though Democrats currently hold 5 of Missouri’s 8 seats, the new geometry could push them into a minority of districts.
- Increase the median competitiveness of Republican districts – By concentrating rural voters who lean Republican, the margins in those districts could widen.
- Shift urban voters into “super‑dilution” districts – By packing them into a smaller number of districts, their influence over statewide outcomes diminishes.
In an interview cited in the article, a former Missouri congresswoman, Lisa Turner, said, “I’ve seen the math and the patterns. The next election will be a fight to keep the voice of the city represented. It’s not just about votes—it’s about democracy.”
Legal and Political Reactions
The Missouri Democratic Party has already begun preparing a lawsuit. The party’s attorney, Samuel Lee, told the KCTV article that the suit will argue the new map violates both the Missouri Constitution and the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause. A link to the party’s legal brief provides a detailed breakdown of the claims, including evidence of partisan bias and the potential for voter disenfranchisement.
The Republican side argues that the new map reflects the state’s demographic realities and that any legal challenge would be “censorship of political representation.” The governor’s office released a press release (linked in the article) asserting that the changes comply with all federal and state law.
Meanwhile, advocacy groups such as FairVote and The National Conference of State Legislatures have issued statements urging Missouri to adopt an independent redistricting commission. Their statements are linked in the article and provide comparative data from states that have independent commissions, such as Colorado and Utah.
The Stakes for the 2026 Midterms
The 2026 midterm elections will be pivotal for Missouri, not only because of the changing district lines but also because of the state’s growing diversity. Dr. Martinez notes that the Hispanic and Black populations have increased by 12% and 8% respectively over the last decade, yet the new maps would “flatten their influence.” In practical terms, it could mean:
- Fewer opportunities for minority candidates to run in districts where they have a realistic chance of winning.
- Increased likelihood of incumbents staying in office due to reduced competition.
- Potential for more “safe” Republican seats, which could affect the national balance of power if Missouri’s representation shifts.
The article quotes political analysts who argue that Missouri’s gerrymandering could have ripple effects in the Senate and House. The next election cycle is already being watched by national parties looking to strengthen their majority.
Conclusion
The KCTV 5 article, by citing Dr. Angela Martinez’s research and following key legislative and legal links, paints a comprehensive picture of Missouri’s impending redistricting crisis. Whether the legislature’s plan will survive the courts or be overturned by a public referendum remains to be seen. But the stakes are high: a new map could reshape Missouri’s political landscape for years to come, affecting not just the state’s representatives but also the broader narrative of American democracy.
Readers can find more in‑depth material by exploring the linked resources: the University of Missouri’s faculty page, the Missouri Supreme Court’s opinion, the Democratic Party’s legal brief, and the governor’s press release. Each source offers a deeper dive into the data and arguments that will determine whether Missouri’s 2026 midterm elections are fought on a level playing field—or whether one side will hold a decisive, engineered advantage.
Read the Full KCTV News Article at:
[ https://www.kctv5.com/2025/09/02/political-science-professor-says-missouri-is-gerrymandering-ahead-2026-midterms/ ]