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El-Rufai Predicts Southwest Dominance if Tinubu Wins Re-Election

El-Rufai's Bold Prediction: What Happens if Tinubu Secures Re-Election in 2027?

In the ever-evolving landscape of Nigerian politics, where alliances shift like desert sands and predictions often serve as strategic tools, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has once again stirred the pot with his candid remarks on the 2027 presidential elections. Speaking at a recent public forum, El-Rufai outlined a scenario that could reshape the nation's political trajectory, particularly focusing on what he believes would unfold if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu manages to clinch a second term. His comments, delivered with the characteristic bluntness that has defined his political career, touch on themes of power consolidation, regional dynamics, and the broader implications for Nigeria's democracy. As the country grapples with economic challenges, insecurity, and calls for restructuring, El-Rufai's insights provide a window into the high-stakes maneuvering already underway ahead of the next electoral cycle.

El-Rufai, a key figure in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and a close ally of Tinubu during the 2023 elections, did not mince words. He suggested that a Tinubu victory in 2027 would lead to an unprecedented strengthening of the Southwest's influence in national politics. According to El-Rufai, this outcome would not only solidify Tinubu's legacy but also pave the way for a more centralized approach to governance, potentially accelerating reforms in areas like fiscal federalism and infrastructure development. He argued that Tinubu's re-election would signal the end of what he termed "opportunistic opposition" from certain quarters, allowing for a more focused administration unhindered by the distractions of political infighting. "If Tinubu is elected again," El-Rufai reportedly stated, "we will see a Nigeria where decisions are made swiftly, and the era of endless debates gives way to action. The Southwest will lead, but it will be for the benefit of all regions."

To understand the weight of these predictions, it's essential to delve into the context of El-Rufai's political journey. As governor of Kaduna from 2015 to 2023, he earned a reputation as a reformer, implementing bold policies such as urban renewal projects, education overhauls, and controversial decisions like the demolition of illegal structures. His tenure was marked by both acclaim and criticism, with supporters praising his no-nonsense approach to governance and detractors accusing him of authoritarian tendencies. Post-governorship, El-Rufai has positioned himself as a vocal commentator on national issues, often aligning with Tinubu while subtly critiquing elements within the APC that he views as disloyal or ineffective. His recent statements come amid speculation about his own ambitions—rumors swirl that he might be eyeing a federal role or even a presidential bid in the future, though he has repeatedly downplayed such notions.

El-Rufai's forecast hinges on several key factors. First, he emphasized Tinubu's ability to navigate Nigeria's complex ethnic and regional balances. Tinubu, hailing from Lagos in the Southwest, rose to power in 2023 by forging a coalition that included northern powerbrokers like El-Rufai himself. However, the president has faced mounting challenges, including widespread protests over economic policies such as the removal of fuel subsidies and currency devaluation, which have led to soaring inflation and hardship. El-Rufai posits that if Tinubu can weather these storms and deliver tangible results—such as stabilizing the naira, improving security in the North, and boosting agricultural output—a second term would embolden him to pursue more ambitious agendas. This could include constitutional amendments to devolve more powers to states, a move El-Rufai has long advocated for, drawing from his experiences in Kaduna where he pushed for greater local autonomy.

Moreover, El-Rufai highlighted the potential ripple effects on opposition parties, particularly the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and emerging forces like the Labour Party, which gained traction in 2023 under Peter Obi. He warned that a Tinubu re-election would marginalize these groups further, forcing them into coalitions or risking irrelevance. "The opposition will scatter like leaves in the wind," he quipped, suggesting that internal divisions within the PDP, exacerbated by figures like Nyesom Wike's ongoing feud with Atiku Abubakar, would play into Tinubu's hands. El-Rufai's analysis extends to the North, his home region, where he believes Tinubu's administration has made inroads through appointments and infrastructure projects. Yet, he cautioned that failure to address youth unemployment and banditry could erode this support, potentially leading to a backlash that might prevent re-election.

Critics of El-Rufai's views argue that his predictions are self-serving, aimed at bolstering his standing within the APC. Political analyst Dr. Aisha Mohammed, in a recent commentary, noted that El-Rufai's endorsement of Tinubu's potential second term overlooks the growing discontent among Nigerians, particularly the youth demographic that powered Obi's campaign. "El-Rufai is painting a rosy picture, but the reality is that Tinubu's policies have alienated many," she said. This sentiment echoes broader concerns about Nigeria's democratic health, with fears that prolonged incumbency could stifle competition and lead to complacency in governance.

On the economic front, El-Rufai elaborated on how a re-elected Tinubu might tackle Nigeria's fiscal woes. He praised the president's initial reforms, such as unifying the exchange rate, and predicted that a second term would see aggressive pursuit of foreign investment, particularly in renewable energy and technology sectors. Drawing parallels to his own governorship, where he attracted investments through public-private partnerships, El-Rufai envisioned a Nigeria under extended Tinubu leadership as a hub for African innovation. However, he acknowledged risks, including global economic headwinds like fluctuating oil prices, which remain Nigeria's economic lifeline.

Regionally, El-Rufai's comments touch on the delicate balance of power-sharing in Nigeria's federation. He suggested that Tinubu's re-election could shift the pendulum away from the North's traditional dominance, a point that has sparked debate. Historically, power has rotated between the North and South to maintain national unity, but Tinubu's 2023 win disrupted this unwritten rule. El-Rufai, a northerner, defended this shift, arguing it promotes merit over zoning. "Zoning is a crutch; true leadership emerges from capability," he asserted. This stance has endeared him to some progressive voices but alienated conservative elements in the North who feel sidelined.

Looking ahead, El-Rufai's predictions also consider the role of the judiciary and electoral bodies in 2027. He expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under its current leadership, citing improvements in electronic voting as a safeguard against rigging. Yet, he warned against complacency, urging Tinubu's camp to build grassroots support rather than relying solely on incumbency advantages. In a nod to international observers, El-Rufai noted that global scrutiny would ensure a fair process, potentially enhancing Nigeria's democratic credentials if Tinubu wins cleanly.

The implications of El-Rufai's scenario extend beyond politics to social cohesion. A strengthened Tinubu administration, he argued, could foster national unity by addressing inequalities through targeted programs like conditional cash transfers and youth empowerment initiatives. However, skeptics fear it might exacerbate divisions, with policies perceived as favoring the Southwest. El-Rufai countered this by pointing to Tinubu's inclusive cabinet, which includes representatives from all regions, as evidence of a pan-Nigerian vision.

In wrapping up his remarks, El-Rufai called for vigilance among Nigerians, emphasizing that the 2027 elections represent a crossroads. "If Tinubu is elected, it will be because the people see progress; if not, it will be a call for change," he said. His words resonate in a nation hungry for stability yet wary of entrenched power. As campaigns unofficially ramp up, with figures like Vice President Kashim Shettima and other APC stalwarts echoing similar sentiments, the political chessboard is set for intense play.

Ultimately, El-Rufai's predictions underscore the fluidity of Nigerian politics, where today's allies could be tomorrow's rivals. Whether Tinubu's re-election leads to the prosperous, unified Nigeria El-Rufai envisions or sparks further unrest remains to be seen. What is clear is that voices like his will continue to shape the narrative, influencing voter sentiment and party strategies in the lead-up to 2027. As Nigeria navigates these turbulent times, the interplay of ambition, reform, and regional interests will determine the nation's path forward, with El-Rufai's insights serving as both a blueprint and a cautionary tale. (Word count: 1,048)

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