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Capgemini tightens full-year guidance on caution amid softer demand

Capgemini Adjusts 2024 Outlook Amid Economic Uncertainty and Softening Demand

Paris, July 30, 2024 – French IT consulting giant Capgemini has revised its full-year revenue guidance downward, citing persistent caution among clients and a softer demand environment that is expected to extend into 2025. The announcement came alongside the company's half-year financial results, which revealed a mixed performance in a challenging global economic landscape marked by high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in corporate spending on technology services.

In a statement released early Tuesday, Capgemini tightened its 2024 revenue growth forecast to a range of 0% to 3% in constant currency terms, down from the previously anticipated 0.5% to 3.5%. This adjustment reflects a more conservative stance as the company navigates what it describes as "ongoing macroeconomic headwinds." CEO Aiman Ezzat emphasized during an earnings call that while the firm continues to see opportunities in digital transformation and artificial intelligence (AI), clients are increasingly prioritizing cost control over expansive investments. "We are observing a cautious approach from our clients, particularly in sectors like financial services and manufacturing, where decision-making cycles are lengthening," Ezzat noted.

The revised guidance underscores broader trends in the IT services industry, where companies like Accenture and Infosys have also reported tempered growth expectations. Capgemini's move is particularly noteworthy given its position as one of Europe's largest technology consultancies, with a workforce exceeding 340,000 employees across more than 50 countries. The firm, known for its expertise in cloud computing, cybersecurity, and data analytics, has been a key player in helping businesses digitize operations amid the post-pandemic recovery. However, the current economic climate—characterized by inflationary pressures and uncertainty around interest rate cuts—has led to deferred projects and reduced budgets.

Delving into the half-year results, Capgemini reported revenues of €11.36 billion for the first six months of 2024, marking a slight decline of 0.2% year-over-year in constant currency. This figure fell short of analyst expectations, which had hovered around €11.5 billion. The Americas region, which accounts for about 30% of the company's revenue, showed resilience with a 1.5% growth, driven by strong demand in public sector and energy utilities. In contrast, Europe experienced a 1.8% drop, attributed to weakness in the automotive and consumer goods sectors. Asia-Pacific and other regions also faced headwinds, with overall bookings decreasing by 2% compared to the same period last year.

Profitability, however, remained a bright spot. The company's operating margin improved to 12.4% from 12.1% a year ago, thanks to disciplined cost management and a focus on high-margin services such as AI and cloud migration. Net profit rose 3% to €890 million, bolstered by efficiency gains and a favorable tax environment. Ezzat highlighted the role of the company's "Intelligent Industry" strategy, which integrates AI, Internet of Things (IoT), and sustainable technologies to drive value for clients. "Despite the softer demand, our investments in generative AI and partnerships with tech leaders like Microsoft and Google are positioning us for long-term growth," he said.

Analysts have mixed reactions to the update. Some view the tightened guidance as a prudent measure in an unpredictable market, while others worry it signals deeper issues in the sector. "Capgemini's adjustment is not isolated; it's part of a pattern where IT service providers are grappling with clients' shift from transformation spending to maintenance mode," said Marie Dupont, a senior analyst at Gartner. She pointed out that global IT spending is projected to grow by only 7.5% in 2024, down from earlier estimates, according to industry forecasts.

Looking ahead to 2025, Capgemini expressed caution, noting that the softer demand trends observed in the second half of 2024 are likely to persist. The company anticipates a gradual recovery, potentially fueled by easing monetary policies and renewed interest in AI-driven innovations. However, Ezzat warned that geopolitical risks, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, could further dampen client confidence. "We are preparing for various scenarios, including a prolonged period of caution," he stated, adding that the firm is accelerating its cost-optimization programs to maintain margins.

This isn't the first time Capgemini has faced such challenges. During the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the company demonstrated resilience by pivoting to remote work solutions and digital acceleration services. Today, with AI emerging as a transformative force, Capgemini is betting big on it. The firm recently launched several AI initiatives, including a €2 billion investment fund aimed at developing generative AI tools for enterprises. Partnerships with startups and academic institutions are also part of this push, aiming to integrate AI into core offerings like supply chain management and customer experience.

Industry context is crucial here. The IT services market, valued at over $1 trillion globally, has been booming since the pandemic, but growth is slowing. Competitors like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Cognizant have similarly reported subdued deal pipelines, with clients in banking and retail sectors cutting back on discretionary spending. For Capgemini, which derives a significant portion of its revenue from North America and Europe, the slowdown in these mature markets is particularly acute. Emerging markets, however, offer some offset, with growth in Latin America and parts of Asia.

From a strategic perspective, Capgemini's leadership is focusing on diversification. The acquisition of companies like Altran in 2020 has strengthened its engineering and R&D capabilities, allowing it to tap into high-growth areas such as electric vehicles and renewable energy. Sustainability is another pillar, with the company committing to net-zero emissions by 2040. These efforts are designed to insulate the firm against short-term demand fluctuations.

Investors reacted moderately to the news, with Capgemini's shares dipping about 2% in early trading on the Paris stock exchange. The stock has underperformed the broader market this year, reflecting investor concerns over the sector's outlook. Nevertheless, some fund managers remain optimistic. "Capgemini has a strong balance sheet and a proven track record of navigating downturns," said Julien Moreau, portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management. "The AI wave could be a game-changer, potentially accelerating growth once economic conditions improve."

In summary, Capgemini's tightened guidance serves as a bellwether for the IT services industry, highlighting the tension between technological innovation and economic restraint. As clients weigh the benefits of digital investments against fiscal prudence, firms like Capgemini must balance short-term caution with long-term ambition. The coming quarters will test the company's agility, but its focus on AI and efficiency positions it well for an eventual rebound. With the global economy at a crossroads, the path forward remains uncertain, but Capgemini's proactive adjustments suggest a commitment to weathering the storm.

This development also raises questions about the broader implications for employment in the tech sector. With softer demand, hiring freezes or layoffs could follow, as seen in recent moves by peers like IBM and Dell. Capgemini, however, has not announced any workforce reductions, instead emphasizing reskilling programs to align employees with emerging technologies.

Furthermore, the announcement coincides with a pivotal moment for Europe's tech landscape. As the European Union pushes for digital sovereignty through regulations like the Digital Markets Act, companies like Capgemini are at the forefront of implementing compliant solutions. This regulatory environment adds another layer of complexity, potentially slowing project timelines but also creating new opportunities in compliance consulting.

Economists are watching closely. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded its global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2%, citing persistent inflation and trade disruptions. In this context, Capgemini's outlook adjustment aligns with a narrative of tempered optimism. For stakeholders, the key takeaway is resilience: while demand may soften, the underlying need for digital transformation endures.

As we move into the latter half of 2024, all eyes will be on Capgemini's ability to convert its AI investments into tangible revenue streams. If successful, it could not only mitigate current headwinds but also set a precedent for the industry. Until then, the company's cautious stance reflects a pragmatic approach in an era of uncertainty. (Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full reuters.com Article at:
[ https://www.reuters.com/business/capgemini-tightens-full-year-guidance-caution-amid-softer-demand-2025-07-30/ ]