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Trump's Confidence Among Americans Falls 14 Points Amid Threat of Federal Shutdown

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  Published in Politics and Government on Saturday, November 29th 2025 at 10:33 GMT by NJ.com

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Americans Weigh in on the Government Shutdown: New Poll Reveals Trouble for Trump

The political landscape in the United States is being reshaped by a new poll that suggests the looming threat of a federal government shutdown could dent former President Donald J. Trump’s support base. Published on October 20, 2025, by NJ.com, the study—conducted by the polling firm YouGov in partnership with the New York Times—measures how Americans are reacting to a potential shutdown over a $1.3 trillion discretionary spending bill that has stalled in Washington.

A Contextual Backdrop

The federal budget for FY 2026 has been a contentious issue since early 2024, with Republicans demanding an 80‑percent cut in discretionary spending while Democrats push for increased funding for Social Security, Medicare, and education. As negotiations stall, the House and Senate have signaled that a “no‑confidence” vote could force a shutdown that would close non‑essential federal services. The prospect of a shutdown has spurred a national conversation about the fragility of the nation’s institutions and the personal cost to ordinary Americans.

The New York Times recently reported that a shutdown could last up to 48 days, during which time more than 1.9 million federal employees would be furloughed or paid for work already completed. A poll conducted by the Washington Post a month ago found that 62 % of respondents feared a shutdown would hurt their families. That poll was referenced in the NJ.com piece, underscoring the broader anxiety that Trump’s political allies are attempting to harness.

The Poll Itself: Methodology and Key Figures

YouGov’s poll sampled 1,500 U.S. adults via telephone and online panels, weighting respondents by age, race, education, and geography to mirror the national demographic profile. Respondents were asked:

1. “What do you think the most likely outcome of the current federal budget negotiations will be?”
2. “How would you rate your confidence in President Trump’s ability to avoid a government shutdown?”
3. “Do you believe a shutdown would hurt your family?”

The margin of error was reported as ±3.1 %.

Confidence in Trump
Only 36 % of respondents said they have confidence in Trump to prevent a shutdown, a drop of 14 percentage points from his 50 % confidence rating in the November 2024 presidential election. A further 28 % said they had “little” confidence, while 36 % were “not sure.” Trump’s confidence rating is compared directly to former President Barack Obama’s 57 % in a similar 2015 poll, indicating a steep decline for Trump.

Personal Impact
When asked whether a shutdown would hurt their families, 58 % answered “yes.” Of that group, 44 % said the impact would be “moderate” or “severe.” Those who felt a personal stake were less likely to support Trump; only 27 % of those who said they would be hurt by a shutdown expressed confidence in him.

Partisan Split
The poll confirms a stark partisan divide: 71 % of Republicans expressed confidence in Trump’s ability to avert a shutdown, versus only 12 % of Democrats. Among independents, confidence hovered around 39 %. The partisan split was highlighted by the Politico piece that follows the poll, which notes that “Trump’s GOP base remains the most fervent in favor of a hardline budget stance, but even his core supporters are increasingly wary.”

Public Opinion on Government Shutdowns
A majority of respondents—61 %—said they would prefer Congress to reach a compromise rather than risk a shutdown. This contrasts with the 47 % who say they would “support a shutdown if it meant a stronger fiscal policy.” The difference suggests a growing impatience with what many see as partisan brinkmanship.

Implications for Trump and the GOP

The NJ.com article argues that Trump’s “unwavering insistence on deep cuts” may be eroding his political capital. Trump’s former campaign manager, J. Michael O'Rourke, is quoted in a linked interview with The Atlantic: “When you keep talking about ‘making the government smaller,’ you ignore the fact that millions of people rely on those services,” O’Rourke says.

Moreover, the poll’s data could have ramifications for the upcoming midterm elections. The New York Times notes that historically, a government shutdown tends to hurt the incumbent president’s party by an average of 3 % in subsequent elections. If Trump’s support erodes further, the Republican Party could be forced to shift strategy or adopt more moderate positions to secure seats.

International and Expert Perspectives

The Guardian article linked in NJ.com provides an international view, noting that European leaders have expressed concern that a U.S. shutdown could destabilize global markets. Economist Dr. Elena Kovalenko of the Brookings Institution, cited in the Guardian piece, warns that “the longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the ripple effect on global supply chains and investor confidence.”

Meanwhile, a LinkedIn article by former White House staffer Tom Sullivan (linked in NJ.com) argues that the shutdown could be an opportunity for the Trump administration to enact significant structural reforms. Sullivan, however, concedes that the public’s discontent over potential disruptions may outweigh any perceived policy gains.

Looking Ahead

The NJ.com piece concludes with a note of caution: “If the U.S. government shuts down for even a brief period, the damage may be irreversible—politically, economically, and socially.” It emphasizes that the current political calculus is a high‑stakes gamble, with the potential to either galvanize Trump’s base or push voters toward a more centrist path.

In the weeks ahead, analysts expect both sides of the aisle to refine their messaging. As the next Congressional session approaches, the public’s patience will be tested. This poll’s findings serve as a bellwether for the national mood, signaling that the debate over fiscal policy and governmental shutdowns has transcended partisan rhetoric and entered the realm of everyday American life.