N※N

A loss for Ishiba could worsen Japan''s instability in the face of US tariffs and rising prices

Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Confronts Daunting Challenges in Upper House Election Amid Economic Pressures and Looming U.S. Tariffs

TOKYO — Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is gearing up for what could be one of the most pivotal political battles of his tenure as the country approaches elections for the House of Councillors, the upper house of its parliament. With the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) already reeling from recent setbacks, Ishiba faces an uphill struggle to maintain control amid surging domestic prices and the specter of renewed trade tensions with the United States. These issues are not only testing his leadership but also highlighting broader vulnerabilities in Japan's economy and its foreign relations.

Ishiba, who assumed office in October following the resignation of his predecessor Fumio Kishida, inherited a political landscape fraught with uncertainty. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for decades, suffered a significant blow in the lower house elections held shortly after Ishiba took power. Although the party managed to form a coalition government, it lost its outright majority, forcing Ishiba to navigate alliances with smaller parties like Komeito. Now, as attention shifts to the upper house vote scheduled for next summer, analysts predict that Ishiba's ability to push through his agenda will be severely tested. The upper house, while less powerful than the lower house in terms of initiating legislation, plays a crucial role in approving budgets and treaties, making it a key battleground for maintaining governmental stability.

At the heart of Ishiba's challenges are escalating living costs that have eroded public support for the LDP. Japan, long accustomed to deflationary pressures, has been grappling with inflation driven by global supply chain disruptions, the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Food prices, in particular, have skyrocketed, with staples like rice, vegetables, and imported goods becoming increasingly unaffordable for many households. According to recent government data, consumer prices rose by more than 3% year-on-year in recent months, a figure that, while modest compared to some Western economies, represents a significant shift for a nation where wage growth has stagnated. Ishiba has pledged to address these issues through measures such as subsidies for energy costs and support for low-income families, but critics argue that these steps are insufficient and fail to tackle underlying structural problems like an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

The prime minister's economic policies are further complicated by external factors, notably the potential imposition of tariffs by the United States. With the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, there is growing anxiety in Tokyo about a possible return of protectionist policies under a Donald Trump administration. During his first term, Trump slapped tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns, which strained bilateral relations and prompted retaliatory measures from Japan. Ishiba has expressed concerns that similar actions could resurface, especially given Trump's campaign rhetoric emphasizing "America First" trade policies. Such tariffs would hit Japan's export-dependent economy hard, particularly in sectors like automobiles and electronics, where companies like Toyota and Sony rely heavily on the U.S. market.

In response, Ishiba has been proactive in bolstering Japan's international standing. He has emphasized strengthening ties with the U.S. through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India, as a counterbalance to China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, domestic opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), are capitalizing on these economic woes to challenge the LDP's dominance. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda has criticized Ishiba's handling of inflation, accusing the government of being out of touch with ordinary citizens. "While families struggle to put food on the table, the LDP is more focused on geopolitical gamesmanship," Noda remarked in a recent speech, underscoring the opposition's strategy to frame the election as a referendum on economic competence.

Beyond economics, Ishiba's administration is contending with a host of other issues that could sway voters in the upper house election. Security concerns loom large, with Japan's proximity to an increasingly assertive China and North Korea's missile tests prompting Ishiba to advocate for a more robust defense posture. He has proposed increasing Japan's defense spending to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO standards, a move that requires upper house approval and has sparked debate over constitutional constraints on Japan's military. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which renounces war, remains a flashpoint, with pacifist groups opposing any expansion of military capabilities.

Demographic challenges add another layer of complexity. Japan's population is aging rapidly, with a declining birthrate exacerbating labor shortages and straining social security systems. Ishiba has outlined plans to encourage immigration and support for working mothers, but these initiatives face resistance from conservative elements within the LDP who prioritize traditional family structures. Moreover, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have left many small businesses in distress, particularly in rural areas where Ishiba draws much of his support base. As a former defense minister known for his expertise in rural revitalization, Ishiba is positioning himself as a champion of these communities, but polls suggest that urban voters, hit hardest by rising prices, are drifting toward opposition parties.

The international dimension cannot be overstated. Japan's economy is deeply intertwined with global trade, and any disruption from U.S. tariffs could have cascading effects. For instance, if tariffs target Japanese autos, it could lead to job losses in manufacturing hubs like Aichi Prefecture, home to Toyota's headquarters. Economists estimate that a 10% tariff on Japanese exports to the U.S. could shave up to 0.5% off Japan's GDP growth. Ishiba has been engaging in diplomatic outreach, including meetings with U.S. officials to underscore the mutual benefits of free trade. Yet, with the U.S. election outcome uncertain, Japanese policymakers are preparing contingency plans, such as diversifying export markets toward Southeast Asia and Europe.

Public sentiment reflects these multifaceted pressures. Recent surveys indicate that Ishiba's approval rating has dipped below 40%, a concerning sign ahead of the upper house election. Voters like Hiroshi Tanaka, a Tokyo salaryman interviewed by local media, express frustration: "Prices are going up, but my salary isn't. How can I support a government that seems helpless against these global forces?" Such anecdotes highlight the personal toll of these issues, from families cutting back on essentials to businesses delaying investments amid uncertainty.

To counter this, Ishiba is ramping up his campaign efforts, focusing on themes of resilience and reform. He has promised to reform the LDP from within, addressing past scandals that plagued Kishida's administration, such as slush fund controversies. By emphasizing transparency and accountability, Ishiba aims to rebuild trust. Additionally, he is pushing for economic stimulus packages, including tax incentives for green energy and digital innovation, to foster long-term growth.

However, the opposition is not idle. The CDP and other parties are forming loose alliances to challenge LDP incumbents in key districts. In prefectures like Hokkaido and Okinawa, where anti-militarism sentiments run high, candidates are campaigning on platforms that prioritize social welfare over defense spending. The Japan Innovation Party, with its populist appeal, is also gaining traction by advocating for bold economic reforms, such as deregulation to spur entrepreneurship.

As the upper house election draws nearer, the stakes for Ishiba could not be higher. A poor showing could weaken his coalition, potentially leading to legislative gridlock or even calls for his resignation. Conversely, a strong performance might solidify his position and allow him to advance his vision for a more assertive Japan on the world stage. Yet, with rising prices squeezing households and the shadow of U.S. tariffs looming, Ishiba must navigate a delicate balance between domestic priorities and international diplomacy.

In the broader context, this election underscores Japan's evolving role in a turbulent global order. As one of Asia's leading democracies, Japan's political stability is crucial not only for its citizens but also for regional security and economic partnerships. Ishiba's battle is emblematic of the challenges facing leaders worldwide: how to shield economies from external shocks while addressing internal inequalities. Whether he can rally support amid these headwinds remains to be seen, but the outcome will undoubtedly shape Japan's trajectory for years to come.

(Word count: 1,128)

Read the Full Seattle Times Article at:
[ https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/japans-pm-ishiba-faces-uphill-battle-in-upper-house-election-amid-rising-prices-and-us-tariffs/ ]